The Skills Factory

Stock

The Stock

This first section looks at the current stock in the Cogent sector. It is important to examine the current picture of the sector in order to gauge where pivotal demographic pinch-points may occur.

The sector is shown firstly broken down by industry, to illustrate the levels of employment within the six industries Cogent represents. This highlights the concentration of employment within the Cogent sector. Following on from this initial breakdown there are illustrations of the occupation distribution, age distribution and highest qualifications held.

Total Employment by Cogent Industry


Source: Annual Business Inquiry 2006 (November 2007 release)

The total number of employees in the Cogent sector is approximately 500,000 according to the Annual Business Enquiry. The Chemical and Polymer industries employ nearly two-thirds of the sector employees.

Stock by Occupation (LFS)


Source: Labour Force Survey 2007
*Nuclear Fuel Processing only

The CORE workforce of the Cogent sector overall consists of Technical and Process workers (45%). The Pharmaceuticals industry employs the largest proportion of Senior Management and Professional occupations, at 49%, with the Polymers industry employing the largest proportion of Technical and Process workers, at 58%.

Cogent Industry Age Distribution


Source: Labour Force Survey 2007
*Nuclear Fuel Processing only

The age distribution of the Cogent sector highlights that the industries with the largest proportion of older workers (over 45 years) are Chemicals, Oil and Gas and Petroleum. In these three industries, approximately 45% of the workers are included in the 45 – 55+ years age group. By contrast, the Nuclear and Pharmaceutical industries currently employ larger numbers of workers under the age of 45, at 36% and 34% respectively.

Industry by Highest Level of Qualification


Through examining the highest level of qualification by industry it is evident that the Pharmaceuticals and the Oil and Gas industries currently employ the largest majority of higher skilled workers, with 61% and 48% of workers skilled to level 4 or above, respectively.

Stock Projections


Source: Working Futures 2, Annual Business Inquiry 2006
*Cogent Forecasts = 0.25% growth in total employment per annum
**Cogent estimates based on IER Working Futures 2 = 1.25% decline in total employment per annum

Working Futures has projected a steady decline in stock requirement to 2014. If this is projected forward to 2022, an overall decline of around 100,000 is predicted. However, recent evidence from actual employee counts has shown an increase over the past two years – if there is continued modest growth this could lead to an increase of around 25,000.

There is clearly a significant difference between these figures, and it is also worth mentioning that different sources would suggest a different starting point - the industry’s own estimate for current employee numbers in the sector, for example, is closer to 900,000. However, for the purposes of analysis this section uses national data as the basis for estimations in the first instance.