Section Contents
Giving people the time to get on with it and to improve their skills
The Skills Factory
Outflow
The Outflow
It is vital to examine the projected number of retirees, since this evidence provides the minimum replacement demand for the sector to maintain current employment levels if the sector remains stable. (This replacement demand can of course also be affected by expansion/decline of the sector and mobility of workers out of the Cogent sector. In addition to this, there will be a flow of people either leaving the sector, or exercising mobility between discrete industries within it (churn). However, we will examine these aspects further in future analyses. For the purposes of this model there has been an assumption of a steady state.)
Forecast Retirees in the Cogent Sector
| Occupation | 2007 | 2007-2012 | 2007-2017 | 2007-2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Occupations | 4,400 | 28,000 | 82,000 | 144,900 |
| Management and Professional workforce | 1,700 | 10,600 | 28,400 | 55,100 |
| Technician workforce | * | 6,000 | 19,300 | 31,800 |
| Process Operator workforce | * | 7,200 | 24,500 | 40,200 |
| Other | 1,200 | 4,200 | 9,800 | 17,800 |
Source: Labour Force Survey 2007 Base: employees in the 65-69 age bands projected forward over 15 years Data rounded
*Data suppressed
The forecast for retirees illustrates that there is likely to be an increased demand for management/graduate occupations by 2022, with a forecast need of over 55,000 managers by that date. The operator workforce also looks likely to face a replacement demand of around 40,000 workers by 2022. The core technician and operator workforce of the Cogent sector is facing a demand of 72,000 employees by the year 2022.
Summary
At present current forecasts for total employment in the Cogent sector by 2022 will be between approximately 401,000 and 523,000 employees
| Supply | Demand |
|---|---|
| Total forecast future retirements are estimated to be 145,000 by 2022 | Total forecast supply of workers entering the Cogent sector 99,600 |
| Estimated 72,000 Technicians and Operators needing to be replaced by 2022 | Forecast of 31,600 apprentices entering the sector by 2022 |
| Estimated 55,000 Managers and Professionals needed by 2022 | Forecast of 68,000 graduates entering the sector by 2022 |
Shortfall
The evidence presented throughout this section leads to the following shortfall and mismatch in the estimated SUPPLY and DEMAND.
| Employee Group | Forecast Demand | Forecast Supply | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Higher Level Workers (Managers and Professionals) | 55,000 | 68,000 | OVER SUPPLY + 13,000 |
| Core Workers (Technicians and Operators) | 72,000 | 31,600 | SHORTFALL - 40,400 |