The Skills Factory

Inflow

The Inflow

This section looks at the flow of ENTRANTS into the sector from Higher Education and Apprentices. (There are other routes into the industry, including Further Education and mature entrants. However, these cannot currently be quantified with available data sources, and since they do not tend to represent a significant proportion of entrants to the sector, we have not included them here. This is an area we will explore further to develop a more sophisticated analysis in future.)

Flow of Graduates

The flow of graduates into the Cogent sector is dominated by Chemistry graduates. Almost 350 entered the sector from this discipline in 2006. The Chemical and Pharmaceutical industries are the largest recruiters of graduates in the sector, with the Oil and Gas industry also recruiting a large proportion of graduates. The Polymer industry is the lowest recruiter of graduates, but the high level R&D elements of the Polymer industry fall into the Chemical industry classification when analysing HESA data.

Graduate Flow into the Cogent Sector (2005/06)


Forecast Graduate Flow 2005-2022
All Graduates entering Cogent Industries p.a. Forecast STEM Graduates Forecast Number of Graduates entering Cogent Industries between 2005 - 2022 Forecast Number of STEM Graduates entering Cogent industries 2005 - 2022
4,000 1,800 68,000 30,600

Source: HESA (based on averaged steady state at 2005-06 figures)

Flow of Apprentices

The data below highlights the flow of apprentices through various frameworks. The major flow into the Cogent industries comes from two frameworks in the sector plus the offshore framework operated by OPITO.

UK Apprenticeships Numbers 2006/2007
Country Framework 2006/07 Certifications
England & Wales Cogent 322
Semta 12325
ECITB 332
Scotland – OPITO data Oil and Gas (Upstream) (OPITO framework only) 48
Northern Ireland Mechanical Engineering 510
Electrical Engineering 481
Electronic Engineering 42

Source: LSC, DECWL, DELNI and SQS

In 2007 Cogent apprentices were approximately 400, however with the introduction of the Cogent Big Ticket Apprenticeship programme and the work of the Skills Academies representing the Process, Nuclear and Oil and Gas industries this figure is expected to rise significantly between now and 2012 and then expected to stabilise from 2012 to 2020.

It is anticipated that the numbers may understate the flow of apprentices from the SEMTA and ECITB frameworks into the sector.

The table below demonstrates that just fewer than 32,000 apprentices are expected to enter the sector between 2007 and 2022. These forecasts are based on figures provided by the Skills Academies within their business plans and have been projected forward in order to ascertain a total cumulative flow to 2022.

Forecast Number of Apprentices 2007 - 2022
  2007 2010 2014 2018 2022
Cogent Sector Apprentices 400 3,472 12,607 22,107 31,607

Source: National Skills Academy Process Business Plan, National Skills Academy Nuclear, Oil and Gas Academy and Learning and Skills Council

Inflow projection

Set alongside the numbers above, it is worth bearing in mind that the flow of 16 and 18 year olds is expected to decline by 2020. We have not incorporated this factor into the projections, but it will clearly serve only to exacerbate any shortfall of entrants. The expected decline means that there will be fewer school leavers for potential relevant apprenticeships or further and higher education courses.

Flow of 16 and 18 year old cohort
Population Projections from 2006 base
  2008 2012 2016 2020
16 year olds 789,000 733,000 686,000 715,000
18 year olds 809,000 770,000 735,000 687,000
2008-2012 2008-2016 2008-2020
-56,000 -7% -103,00 -13% -74,000 -9%
-39,000 -5% -74,000 -9% -122,000 -15%

Source: Government Actuary Department (2008)

2008 – 2020 forecasts for 16 and 18 year olds


Source: Government Actuary Department (2008)