The Skills Factory

Conclusions

Comparison of the numbers above suggests that the current inflow of non-graduates (this is, entry via apprenticeship routes and vocational qualification routes) is insufficient to meet replacement demand in processing and technician roles. This deficit will increase significantly in the five-year period to 2017, which coincides with the known lowest point in 16-18 year-olds in the general population, meaning that recruitment will be taking place within the most competitive marketplace. Therefore, alternative sources of skills to meet demand will be required, including a focus on upskilling and re-skilling the current workforce, as well as initiatives to attract more entrants.

The development of National Skills Academies will help to address this gap, by stimulating employer demand for, and supporting the delivery mechanism of, relevant vocational programmes and qualifications.

At higher level, the current level of supply is likely to be sufficient overall, although of course further analysis will be needed to monitor the needs of individual industries and to avoid specific pinch-points.

While macro analysis of the higher skilled workforce - Managers and Professionals - predicts a stable situation, this conceals workforce development issues in the area of STEM professionals. While further research is required to extract a higher resolution of the higher skilled workforce – management, finance, IT, personnel, STEM etc - it is noted that the professional STEM workforce is of core importance in enabling manufacturing of science and engineering products. Our interim research indicates that there will be an ongoing requirement for 30,000 new graduate STEM professionals in the sector by 2022. In addition, the age profile of the existing professional STEM workforce suggests a significant higher level upskilling requirement. Higher level STEM is treated in detail in Section Six. The supply, attraction and workforce development of STEM professionals is thus of strategic importance to the Cogent sector.

The forecasts illustrate the need for a concentration on the Technician and Operator workforce through the development of qualifications and vocational training at relevant levels, and through the upskilling of the existing Cogent workforce. Although there is already a range of initiatives to address skills shortages across the sector, the analysis suggests that the emphasis on particular skills levels will need adjusting from current rates if we are to meet the future needs of the sector.

The figures above do need to be treated with some caution, given the limitations of the available data, and the simplifications we have made throughout the analysis. In particular, more sophisticated analysis of entry from Further Education, of age cohort changes and of expansion or contraction of individual industries would affect the estimates in various ways. However, the picture they paint does fit with the anecdotal evidence that Cogent regularly receives from employers, and we are confident that the analysis forms a strong basis for action. We plan to continue examining the figures available to improve the analysis further, including through the use of our forthcoming Oracle project, which will provide a detailed longitudinal study of skills needs in the sector.