Cogent Industries

Nuclear

A ground shift in thinking and in the economic picture of nuclear power, as a crucial element of the green solution to security of energy supply, is being driven by the need to reduce carbon emissions and dependence upon hydrocarbons for energy production. Across the world, nuclear power provides 16% of global electricity requirements.

Rising oil prices have led to the Prime Minister’s stating that the UK needs to be more ambitious in its plans for nuclear power – indicating that a broader programme of new build may extend beyond replacement of the existing nuclear power stations. This comes at a time when over 30 countries are considering a nuclear power programme for the first time, and internationally there are currently 35 nuclear power reactors already under construction, with a further 91 on order or planned. Coming years will see unprecedented world-wide demand for nuclear expertise. While many of the skills required for the UK can be resourced at home, the engagement of the global supply chain will be essential for the manufacture of key components.

The UK has 19 power generation reactors in operation and 15 nuclear powered submarines, with ongoing demand for operation and maintenance extending to 2035. In the meantime, the growth area of nuclear industry activity in the UK is in decommissioning and clean up, with 21 reactors in decommissioning and two more due to enter this phase in the next two years. Overall costs of managing the nuclear legacy look set to rise to over £73billion.

Source: World Nuclear Association (2008) http://www.world-nuclear.org

Trends and dates
Year* Turnover GVA GVA per Employee Balance of Trade Employment
2006 £1,843m £841m Average £63,712 £50 million 13,200
2000 £1,552m £789m Average £60,692 13,000

* Date suppressed for the intervening years
Source: Annual Business Inquiry 2006, HM Revenue and Statistics 2007

Data presented above relates only to Processing of Nuclear Fuels. Total industry employment is approx 50,000.

Key dates in decommissioning and new build:

Denotes facility entering decommissioning and clean-up. Source: Nuclear Industry Association (2008), The UK capability to deliver a new nuclear build programme.

The skills gap

  • There is an under supply of people qualified to level 2 and 3 compared to the proportion of jobs
  • There is a 20% deficit of people qualified at levels 2 and 3

Decommissioning will be the major nuclear sub-industry growth area to 2015. The change from operations will require workforce re-skilling. The National Skills Academy Nuclear estimates that 6,000 workers will undertake decommissioning specific qualifications over the next five years.

The data used in the Skills Gap diagram use the ‘occupation in main job’ and the ‘highest level of qualification’ held as proxy measures for the ‘skills level of job’ and the ‘skills level of employee’ respectively.

The future of the industry

The forecast requirement for new entrants to the nuclear industry by 2015 is between 3,400 and 11,500, while if early retirements occur, this could rise as high as 16,500.

Occupation Profile:

  • Growth occupations to 2025 are Skilled Trades and Associate Professionals and Technicians;
  • Most-case forecasts see a need for: 2,100 Process and Machine Operators; 3,500 Skilled Trades; 2,400 Associate Professional and Technical workers and 8,500 Professionals and Senior Officials between 2005 and 2015, to account for retirements alone.

ECITB research also forecasts the overall power generation sector (including coal, gas, nuclear and renewables) will have an increased demand for its workforce of 3,800 over the period 2007-2014. This is driven by demands of new build and increased need for repair and maintenance of ageing facilities. In addition to this, replacement demand for retirements in the ECITB workforce is estimated to be about 6%.

Priorities

The top priority in the nuclear industry is the need for an increase in vocational and technical skills, up to and including level 3. The sector needs to quadruple the number of apprentices over the next five years, and needs clear progression routes through to Foundation Degrees and Higher Education. The prospect of new nuclear build has increased the number of students on post-graduate programmes, and two new nuclear degree courses have been established. Graduate development programmes are also on the increase.

In the defence sector, a build programme of submarines continues alongside the studies to replace the national deterrent. This suggests the need for a steady flow of new entrants with the skills to undertake this work.

In the civil sector, the decommissioning of legacy sites continues, requiring a major re-skilling of their workforce. The prospect of new build will also require a new training and education programme. In the early years, many of the skills required may come from the engineering and construction industries, once the new build programme is established, a new education and training programme will be required to ensure the supply of suitably qualified and experienced personnel to operate these new reactor plants.